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Bengal BJP president Sukanta Majumdar claimed that the get together will win 35 seats within the state.
Kolkata:
The West Bengal BJP, which political analysts declare is grappling with inner discord, organisational shortcomings and resurgence of the Left-Congress alliance, takes on the daunting activity of securing 35 Lok Sabha seats within the nationwide elections, hinging on CAA implementation as its key to realize its goal.
Within the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP put up a stellar efficiency in West Bengal, clinching 18 seats and securing 40 per cent of the vote share. Buoyed by its success, the get together has set an formidable goal of successful 35 seats on this election.
Whereas the get together closely depends on the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it additionally seeks to reap the advantages of the Citizenship (Modification) Act, though political analysts warn that CAA might show to be a “double-edged sword” for the BJP.
They opine that the CAA might unite the Hindu group, but additionally provoke a backlash from minority teams.
The BJP’s prospects in West Bengal additionally rely closely on the momentum of the Left-Congress alliance, which has been progressively gaining power throughout the state’s 42 Lok Sabha constituencies.
West Bengal BJP president Sukanta Majumdar mentioned the get together will not be solely hopeful however assured that it could win 35 seats within the state.
Nonetheless, a bit of the BJP leaders identified a bunch of each inner and exterior challenges that the saffron camp faces within the state on its path to reaching its goal.
“The largest problem for the get together lies in getting its organisation, which has been in tatters because the 2021 meeting polls debacle, so as. We nonetheless haven’t got folks to nominate sales space brokers in additional than 80,000 cubicles within the state,” former BJP nationwide secretary Anupam Hazra mentioned.
Hazra, who shares a strained relationship with the current state management, claimed that inner conflicts and an absence of grassroots-level coordination have impeded the BJP’s efforts to consolidate its place within the state as mirrored within the collection of electoral losses because the 2021 meeting ballot defeat.
Since 2021, eight MLAs and two MPs have shifted allegiance to the TMC. Just one amongst them, MP Arjun Singh, has returned to the BJP.
In 2019, the BJP secured 40 per cent of the vote share. Nonetheless, within the 2021 meeting polls, this dropped barely to 38 per cent. Regardless of a progress from 10 per cent vote share and three meeting seats in 2016 to 77 seats in 2021, they did not seize energy.
The decline in vote share started with the Bhabanipur bypoll, the place it dropped from 35 per cent in Could 2021 to 22 per cent in October of the identical 12 months, and this pattern has persevered.
In elections to 108 different civic our bodies, the BJP solely managed to garner 12.57 per cent of votes.
In final 12 months’s panchayat polls, the get together secured 22 per cent of the vote share securing the third place, only one per cent lower than the Left-Congress-ISF alliance.
The resurgence of the Left-Congress alliance additional complicates the BJP’s electoral technique, posing a formidable problem to the get together.
Till 2021, the shift in votes of those events to the BJP had contributed to the saffron get together’s progress within the state.
After the 2021 meeting polls, nevertheless, the Left and Congress witnessed a revival with their alliance wresting the Sagardighi seat from the TMC within the 2023 meeting by-election.
A BJP chief mentioned the re-emergence of the Left-Congress-ISF alliance may hinder the consolidation of anti-TMC votes within the saffron get together’s favour, particularly in south Bengal constituencies.
“Because the Left and Congress didn’t battle the 2019 polls in alliance in West Bengal, we had a transparent path to garner everything of the anti-TMC votes. Nonetheless, in a three-cornered contest, these votes are more likely to be divided,” remarked the senior BJP chief.
“A triangular contest might, nevertheless, additionally provide alternatives to the BJP in sure seats, significantly if minority votes are divided. The impression of the Left-Congress-ISF alliance was evident in minority-dominated seats, as seen within the Sagardighi bypoll,” he mentioned.
The consolidation of anti-TMC votes led to a outstanding surge within the BJP’s vote share from 17 per cent in 2014 to 40 per cent in 2019, whereas its seat tally rose from two to 18.
Whereas the TMC’s vote share elevated by three per cent to achieve 43 per cent, the depend of its parliamentary seats declined from 34 to 22.
The BJP leaders, nevertheless, hope to capitalise on polarisation within the majority group, significantly in Matua-dominated constituencies, by leveraging CAA as a pivotal subject.
Majumdar asserted “CAA will assist the BJP sweep the elections within the state”.
On the flip aspect, the BJP, which doesn’t have a sturdy organisational power like that of the TMC, has not been profitable in countering the TMC’s marketing campaign on the bottom towards the CAA that it could take away citizenship.
Making issues worse, the All India Matua Mahasangha, a key organisation of the Matua group, has suggested its members to use for Indian citizenship beneath the brand new regulation solely after the brand new authorities assumes cost on the Centre.
“The TMC is attempting laborious to mislead the plenty on CAA, however they will not succeed,” Majumdar mentioned.
The BJP can also be banking on the Sandeshkhali subject, the place locals have accused TMC leaders of sexually abusing girls within the space.
In north Bengal, a powerful base for the BJP which had received seven of the eight seats within the area in 2019, there may be rising dissatisfaction over the distribution of tickets.
Political scientist Sabyasachi Basu Ray Chaudhury mentioned that the impression of implementing the CAA remains to be unclear.
“BJP might both profit from the CAA or it might backfire,” he mentioned.
Political analyst Subhomoy Maitra mentioned the BJP’s electoral efficiency is dependent upon how the Left-Congress alliance performs.
“The alliance’s potential to chop into anti-TMC votes within the state holds the important thing to BJP’s success,” he mentioned.
(Aside from the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV workers and is printed from a syndicated feed.)
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